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CU 色吧亚洲 researcher Steve Miller argues for deeper insight into how people understand risk before shocks, especially those related to climate change, happen in global systems

The world is becoming increasingly interconnected, which has many benefits. Shoppers in Colorado, for instance, can enjoy tropical fruits in the dead of winter, thanks to vast and complex trade networks.

But this interconnectivity is also risky. A war or drought in one country can have devastating consequences on the availability and affordability of food thousands of miles away. People and governments typically react to these shocks after the fact, such as by implementing trade bans or adjusting crop production, to help mitigate the harm locally.听

However, people and governments also try to manage risks proactively, before such shocks occur, which can then affect the broader system. For example, a coastal fishing community worried about the risk of fish-stock collapse because of climate change might diversify its economy by expanding into ecotourism. Their decision to export fewer fish could, in turn, affect the global fish market.

In this way, risk is not only a byproduct of a globally interconnected system鈥攊t鈥檚 also a force that acts upon it, a group of interdisciplinary researchers argues in a new paper published in the journal .

鈥淚f we want to understand the effects of a risk like climate change, we can't just look at how connections like trade can help us buffer the effects of shocks鈥攆or example, droughts and wildfires鈥攁fter they happen,鈥� says lead author Steve Miller, an assistant professor in the University of Colorado 色吧亚洲 Department of Environmental Studies. 鈥淲e also have to look at how risks of those events might change where people, goods and information go even before shocks occur.鈥�

The idea that an increasingly interconnected global system creates new sets of risks is widely accepted and serves as the backdrop for many studies and policy decisions. However, the reverse鈥攖hat risk can change the system itself鈥攐ften gets overlooked.

To truly understand and assess risks鈥攕uch as those posed by climate change鈥攖he world needs to be paying attention to both, the researchers argue.

鈥淚f we don't account for those feedbacks, we're not going to get the costs of climate change right, and we might make some mistakes in how or how much we choose to invest in mitigation and adaptation,鈥� says Miller.

Perceiving and managing risk

Consider the effects of climate change on food availability, for example. Researchers need to understand how crop failure in one nation might ripple through the global trade network and cause severe food shortages elsewhere in the world.

But they also need to back up, long before the crop failure occurs, and look at how governments, farmers, distributors and consumers perceive the risk of climate change-related crop failure鈥攁nd what they choose to do about it, says Miller. Their efforts to manage risk鈥攕uch as planting more fail-safe crops or buying more protective insurance policies鈥攗ltimately feed back into and alter the broader system.

Beyond that, changes made because of perceived risk may have consequences for both people and the environment鈥攁nd these downstream effects are not well understood. For instance, the coastal fishing community that begins to rely more heavily on ecotourism must now grapple with new types of risks, such as an economic downturn that dampens tourism.

Risks are an outcome of a global, complex system鈥攂ut they also play a role in shaping it.

鈥淚t's a simple point, but there's lots to do,鈥� says Miller.

Future research

The new paper stemmed from a series of backyard chats between Miller and co-authors Laura Dee, a CU 色吧亚洲 assistant professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and Ere虂ndira Aceves-Bueno, an assistant professor in the University of Washington鈥檚 School of Marine & Environmental Affairs.

The conversation centered around how some lobster fishers and fishing cooperatives in Mexico, Australia and New Zealand primarily sell their catch to markets in China. Each fishery faces many risks, from fluctuations in local lobster populations to changing consumer tastes in China to global supply chain issues.

鈥淗ow these people understand and respond to those risks got us thinking about the more general challenge of perceiving and managing risks in globally linked systems like our food systems,鈥� says Miller.

To think through this complex topic, the trio looped in other researchers at CU 色吧亚洲鈥�Meghan Hayden in ecology and evolutionary biology and Amanda Carrico in environmental studies鈥攁s well as experts at other institutions: Uchechukwu Jarrett, an associate professor of practice in economics at the University of Nebraska Lincoln and Kate Brauman, deputy director of the Global Water Security Center at the University of Alabama.

Together, the collaborators produced a 鈥淧erspective,鈥� a type of peer-reviewed paper that鈥檚 intended to stimulate discussion and inspire new approaches. More specifically, the co-authors hope their paper leads to more research on how people perceive and react to risks in systems that are connected by both environmental and socioeconomic links across the globe.

To that end, they suggest some possible research opportunities for theorists, empiricists, behavioral scientists and experts in particular types of connectivity, such as markets or species migration. For example, they propose lab or field experiments that involve presenting farmers with various risk scenarios, then asking them to explain their thought-processes as they assess each one.

鈥淲e need a lot more research,鈥� says Miller. 鈥淚t's a clear case where we need lots of expertise from many disciplines, and folks with transdisciplinary skills to bring it all together.鈥�

鈥楳ake better decisions鈥�

More broadly, the co-authors hope to draw attention to the push-pull relationship between complex systems and risk. Each can affect the other, and their interactions are far from straightforward.

In the future, they say, those working in research, industry, government agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must focus on both if they hope to tackle complex global challenges like climate change.

鈥淚f we get better at embedding risk in our models of how these systems work鈥攍ike food systems, trade in primary resources like timber, or ecotourism鈥擨 think we'll get more credible predictions of how things like climate change will impact us and the ecosystems on which we depend,鈥� says Miller. 鈥淲ith those better predictions, we can make better decisions.鈥�

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